Iranian crypto outflows have seen a dramatic spike in the hours following recent US-Israeli airstrikes, according to on-chain data analyzed by Chainalysis.
New analysis reveals a surge in activity from major Iranian exchanges after the February 28, 2026 airstrikes, with approximately $10.3 million in cryptoasset outflows occurring between February 28 and March 2. This trend aligns with findings from Chainalysis’s recent analysis of Iran’s $7.8 billion crypto ecosystem in 2025, which indicated that trading volumes and on-chain movements tend to increase during periods of geopolitical tension and domestic unrest.
The report highlighted that Bitcoin withdrawals from Iranian exchanges to personal wallets increased significantly during the most recent protest wave. This was likely due to citizens seeking a self-custodial hedge against economic instability and potential government crackdowns. Analysis of cumulative BTC outflows showed a surge in volumes leading up to an internet blackout, followed by a flatline during the connectivity outage, and then a resurgence once internet access was restored. The spike in Iranian crypto outflows appears to follow a similar pattern of major geopolitical escalation followed by increased on-chain activity.
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Hourly Outflows from Iranian Exchanges Surge
Data shows that in the hours before the strikes, outflows were relatively modest. However, following the news of the US-Israeli strikes on February 28, hourly volumes jumped sharply, approaching or exceeding $2 million within several hours. By March 2, total outflows since the start of February 28 reached approximately $10.3M – significantly higher than typical volumes.
While the increase in outflows suggests significant activity, the data doesn’t immediately reveal who is moving the funds or their motivations. A closer look at outflows from major Iranian exchanges, broken down by transfer size and destination category, offers some plausible explanations.
Understanding the Spike in Iranian Crypto Outflows
A substantial share of outflows land in “other wallets,” which could be attributed to several factors:
- Iranians moving funds off exchanges: Ordinary users are moving assets into self-custody as a hedge against instability.
- Iranian exchanges cycling funds: Crypto businesses in sanctioned jurisdictions routinely move funds to obfuscate their activity on the blockchain.
- State actors leveraging mainstream Iranian exchanges: State-aligned actors using platforms for laundering and cross-border trade.
“Distinguishing between these possibilities requires more time, more data, and deeper wallet-level analysis than is possible in the immediate aftermath of the strikes.”
The Challenges of Real-Time Interpretation
Several factors complicate the picture, making it difficult to confidently separate retail flight from service-level wallet management, from state-related activity:
- Internet blackouts and throttling
- Service-controlled wallets vs. user-controlled wallets vs. state-controlled wallets
- Operational risk management
The truth is that from this close to the events, it’s extremely difficult to confidently separate retail flight from service-level wallet management, from state-related activity.
In conclusion, the observed spike in Iranian crypto outflows following the airstrikes likely reflects a combination of factors. While some outflows represent ordinary Iranians seeking refuge from instability, others may involve exchanges reshuffling liquidity or state-aligned actors leveraging mainstream platforms. Further analysis and time are needed to fully understand the motivations behind these movements and the long-term implications for Iran’s crypto ecosystem. As more data becomes available, we will continue to monitor and analyze these trends to provide a clearer understanding of the evolving situation.
